Solid state batteries, completely autonomous driving, and if some of these SPAC partnerships will actually generate a series production vehicle are just a few of the game-changing components the EV community has been keeping an eye on in recent years. Tesla, as one of the most well-known names in the electric car industry, has promised a number of goods over the years, some of which it has produced, but many of which it has yet to deliver (ahem, Cybertruck and 2nd Gen. Roadster). Tesla is also reported to be working on a $25,000 model. While the manufacturer has only had a whiff of EV price within $10,000 of that figure, it suggests that it is still on the way. Here's everything we've learned so far.
The $25,000 Tesla Model
The idea of a Tesla model at this pricing range was first discussed around the EV community as more of a "what if" situation. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO at the time, had claimed that the company would most likely not produce an electric car for less than $35,000.
In fact, when the Model 3 was announced, the $35,000 price tag was a major selling feature, as Tesla was seeking to fulfill a long-standing promise to provide a $35K electric vehicle. Tesla did, in fact, sell a Standard Range RWD Model 3 for $35K for a limited time.
The Model 3's pricing has fluctuated a little since then, and it now starts at $41,990 without destination costs or federal tax credits. Still a long way from $35,000. However, you might be able to get a Model 3 for a lower price somewhere else.
Regardless, during its Battery Day event in 2020, Tesla suddenly changed its mind (imagine that?) and promised an even cheaper Tesla.
Musk teased that the $25,000 Tesla model would be ready in three years. Musk then promised that the next EV would be fully driver less, as if the announcement had not just made Tesla engineers' heads spin.
We don't yet have any actual images, price, or assurance that full autonomy will be achieved within the next two years. We don't even have a name for it other than the fictional "Model 2."
Even so, new information has come in, which we are glad to share with you. Please take advantage of this thick rail of salt to take the edge off.
A design about $25,000.
Any ideas Tesla had about a possible design came from China. We reported earlier this year that Tesla was building an R&D center in Shanghai with the goal of manufacturing a $25,000 electric car for the Chinese market.
Tesla has already started accepting design suggestions for the aforementioned Chinese-made EV prior to then. Similarly, Tesla posted an early design drawing of a small electric hatchback, prompting speculation that this is the design direction the carmaker is considering for the upcoming EV.
Anything beyond the drawing above is purely fan drawings of "Model 2" modifications based on the limited design knowledge we have thus far.
Aside from the good looks of the $25,000 Tesla vehicle, we now have a better idea of its inside features, or lack thereof.
Musk just given new features during a corporate meeting in September, according to Electrek's Fred Lambert.
According to sources present at the conference, Musk linked the introduction of the new model to the company's achievement of a deploy able full self-driving system. Even better, Musk is said to have posed the following question to business employees:
Do we want a steering wheel and pedals with this car?"
That question (if accurate) indicates how far out of the box Musk is thinking for this new, less expensive model – or how far off his rocker he truly is, given the fact that there are several other EVs on the way ahead of this one.
In any case, we can't leave out the possibility that the world will witness a new $25,000 Tesla model with no pedals or steering wheel.
That doesn't seem like the best way for general EV adoption, especially in a low-cost EV, but I'm not Elon Musk.
While this design element remains beautiful, Tesla did post an image of a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals two years ago, claiming that its objective was to release a vehicle without physical controls within two years.
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| A Tesla rendering with no pedals or steering / Source: Tesla |
We're still dependent on those pesky steering wheels and pedals to get around two years later. Who knows, by the time Tesla's $25,000 model arrives, that technology might truly be a realistic alternative.
Tesla's newest and most basic model will be released at the end of this year.
Musk said at the same conference that Tesla planned to begin manufacturing of its $25,000 model sometime in 2023.
Previous reports said that Tesla's R&D unit in China had already created a prototype and that trial production would begin overseas before the end of the year.
Both reports, at least the fact that Tesla has a prototype and that serial production will begin in two years, could be genuine. However, based on Musk's 2023 production target alone, it seems that trial production will begin before the end of the year.
Trial production in 2021, rather than 2023, would be more closely related to series production the following year. To fully approach that $25,000 pricing point, Tesla will rely significantly on its improving battery technology, which is simply not there now.
What will it take for Tesla to hit its $25,000 pricing point?
Batteries will be a key reason.
When Elon Musk first announced the $25,000 b in 2020, he did so with the caveat that it would only be possible thanks to Tesla's upgraded battery cells and production efforts. Tesla's 4680 cells use a Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistry that might cut EV battery costs by more than half.
It's difficult to foresee a scenario in which Tesla achieves this goal without drastically lowering its battery costs. Especially since, other from short intervals with the Model 3, Tesla hasn't been able to maintain a pricing point below $40K for any of its current models.
If and when the LFP cells are scalable, a lot of Tesla's future EV performance will be depending on them.
The "Model 2," "Model Q," or whatever we're calling it this week will now be part of that future. In fact, it's safe to say that Tesla's targeted battery manufacturing goals will affect whether the $25,000 Tesla lives and dies.
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